Like many charts out there over the last 11 years that all looked so compelling that the end was here and we were heading into a recession; that only turned out to be cheap salesmanship and marketing by self-proclaimed
What economci gurus scam artists have managed to do over the years, is to fool people and confuse them, instead of helping them. As they presented themselves to you, as prudent risk averse experts looking out for you. Bullschitt! These fuckers are like Jehovah witnesses offering redemption for your soul for a like, a heart, a following, a subscription a political agenda.
The reality is (if you haven’t figured out by now) that no one ever knows when and why we will end up in a recession. Certainly not the so called “alternative economic social media types”! These fucktard “Gurus” track records in their calls are actually way worse than the mainstream media. That says A LOT!
Having followed the evolution of social media economic, trading, investing, finance, “expert” fucktards I have learned much from them, mostly what NOT to do by debuting them and that I should never underestimate the power of marketing. As I have in the past. Thinking, do people actually believe this schitt? Well it turns out they do! Very much so. Highly educated professional actually fall for the bullschitt matketing. Fascinating!
Please keep in mind as I post what I find to be concerning on a risk/reward basis. My goal has always been to identify unique areas that present themselves at interesting key points both bullish and bearish in an economic and market sense. Contrasting that information with money flows and price action on a blank chart enables me to identify this areas. What I have and still are developing over the years is called REAL MACRO patreon.com/
Having said all that, I want to be crystal clear! My work is only based on seeking areas of risk reward. I have absolutely no clue what tomorrow will bring. No one does. We can literally go the way the bond market has in stockds that will continue to go up for the next 40 years! If you think that is impossible, just think of all the Bond expertes who called Japan & US endless bond bull run a bubble for 40 + fucken years! And counting!
If you are not thinking this way you are closed minded. Anything is possible. Probable? No! possible yes. It is important to understand the differences. This helps you maintain balance with a healthy sense of skepticism to keep you from saying stupid schitt like the market will crash every day or that anything negetive that occurs in the economy is to be written off as moronic, very uncool and unpatriotic. BALANCE!
Finally, this chart below looks like schitt along with other some subtle and some not so subtle data points. On the flipside the good data may be looking too good, (recent housing) that means this could be in fact problematic. Why? Because if the good data can’t get much better than they will naturally reverse and correct. If they do and we are to depend on the “insignificant”
Take all the time to deeply think about what I just said and really weigh it all on a one by one basis at your own pace. I believe you will reach the same conclusion as me. At this juncture, we either break out to all-time new highs and go euphoric in a straight line up! Or we start heading south in the months ahead. The more likely scenario at this point looking across all the macro data worldwide in my view.
Those who have followed me over the last 10 years know I have not been bearish till now.
Long-winded I know, but I want to be crystal clear for those who follow me to have a good understanding of why I am posting what I am. Above all, I am not pretending to have a magical crystal ball or know anything more than what is already known by everyone else. If I am wrong so be it. Won’t be the first time.