Some people have said I hate the market and I want to clarify my position over the years in this chart and answer a few questions.
Do I think the Market is a bargain at all time highs? No!
Do I think the Market can not continue higher? No!
Do I think a correction is in order? Yes!
Do I think the market will Crash? No!
Do I think we could have a rapid drop in the markets giving back 6 months of gains in 2 days? YES!
Do I think we are in Euphoria land?? YES!
Do I think we will have a correction before the end of the year? YES!
Do I think credit growth will crash the Market? No! But not good!
Do I think Deficits are too small and will crash the Market? No! but not good! There is simply less fuel for the savings bubble.
Do I think higher rates will crash the Markets? Yes! If rates started to challenge the S&P Earnings Yield.
Do I think we will have an inflation problem? NO!
Do I think we will have a Bond implosion? NO!
What do I think is the biggest risk for the Markets? Central banks pulling back and reversing course. (stop Giving Cash for Bonds. (ECB) Changing the composition of Savings bubble)
Would I buy a 10 to 20% Pull back in the Market? YES! Unless some weird unknown catalyst was the cause.
Do I think we will have another 2008 event? No! A recession Yes! Melt down? No! Highly unlikely based on current information.
Do I think the Dollar will crash? NO! 10% pull back is very healthy and should be bought.
In closing. I don’t feel an urge to always be in stocks. Just like I don’t feel the urge to always be in FOREX. I don’t run Billions of dollars or have any obligation to always make a return. An economy and the market is like a Bagpipe. It can continue to play on long after you blew into it. This is what I learned from Japan, the EUR Austerity crisis and this is what I am learning today at all time highs. I am not a guru, I do not claim to know the future, or that I am some kind of expert. Although I have high expertise in blowing out accounts, getting my ass handed to me subscription services, get rich and learn how to trade for living books, websites, youtube, webinars, Media. When we start to see lower highs and lower lows in the stock market I can assure you with 100% certainty I will be a full on Bear! Till then? I AM NEUTRAL!
Author Jim Boukis